Opening Day, Mike Trout and 2014 Season Expectations

A baseball analytics blog from Vince Gennaro, president of the Society for American Baseball Research and author of Diamond Dollar$: The Economics of Winning in Baseball

Diamond Dollar$

Happy (full) Opening Day. First a comment on the Mike Trout contract, also known as the “perfect deal” for both sides. The Angels and Mike Trout nailed it. Six years at $144.5 million is the dream scenario for both sides. The length and terms of the deal are optimal. For those who think the deal should be longer, I would argue that each of the next two years would be priced at $40 million per year, a price that the Angels were well advised to avoid. The reason the Angels could get Trout to agree to a deal at this relatively modest commitment is because they are giving him the opportunity (actually gift) of re-pricing himself at the young age of 29. For a player of Trout’s caliber (or at least what most people expect Trout to be), hitting the free agent market at 29 vs. say 31 years old…

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